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Coming Atlantic hurricane season "active to extremely active"
(5/27/2010 - OGI: Washington) The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center advised today that the coming hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin appears to be shaping up to be "active to extremely active".
The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, said today that the six-month hurricane season, which begins on 1 June, is predicted to have 14 to 23 named storms with winds of 39 mph or more, eight to 14 hurricanes with winds 74 mph or higher, of which three to seven could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5), with winds of at least 111 mph.
"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said Dr Jane Lubchenco, under-secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."
The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Nino in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures - up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average - are now present in this region.
Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.
"The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Ni–a develops this summer," said Dr Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Nina to develop."
Historically, the peak hurricane period is August and September. NOAA said it will be updating its predictions prior to that time.
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